March Madness 2026

Updated Predictions: Round of 32

Stacked Ensemble · 73.6% accuracy · 10,000 simulations

Model Accuracy vs Actual Results

Round of 64 22/30 73.3%

Updated Predicted Champion

Duke

#1 Seed · 27.3% probability

Championship Odds (Updated)

1Duke27.3%

1Michigan20.0%

2Houston13.5%

1Arizona12.4%

2Purdue7.1%

3Illinois4.3%

1Florida4.1%

2Connecticut2.8%

2Iowa St.2.2%

4Arkansas1.2%

3Virginia1.0%

5St. John's0.7%

3Michigan St.0.6%

5Vanderbilt0.6%

5Texas Tech0.5%

Final Four Odds (Updated)

1Duke60.7%

1Michigan56.1%

1Arizona44.8%

2Houston42.4%

2Purdue31.5%

1Florida23.7%

3Illinois22.6%

2Iowa St.18.3%

2Connecticut17.6%

4Arkansas13.5%

3Virginia9.5%

3Michigan St.7.7%

3Gonzaga7.1%

5St. John's6.6%

5Vanderbilt6.6%

Bracket Results

Round of 64 ACTUAL

1 Duke over 16 Siena FINAL

9 TCU over 8 Ohio St. FINAL

5 St. John's over 12 Northern Iowa FINAL

4 Kansas over 13 Cal Baptist FINAL

6 Louisville over 11 South Florida FINAL

3 Michigan St. over 14 North Dakota St. FINAL

7 UCLA over 10 UCF FINAL

2 Connecticut over 15 Furman FINAL

1 Florida over 16 Prairie View A&M FINAL

9 Iowa over 8 Clemson FINAL

5 Vanderbilt over 12 McNeese St. FINAL

4 Nebraska over 13 Troy FINAL

11 VCU over 6 North Carolina FINAL

3 Illinois over 14 Penn FINAL

10 Texas A&M over 7 Saint Mary's FINAL

2 Houston over 15 Idaho FINAL

1 Arizona over 16 LIU Brooklyn FINAL

9 Utah St. over 8 Villanova FINAL

12 High Point over 5 Wisconsin FINAL

4 Arkansas over 13 Hawaii FINAL

11 Texas over 6 BYU FINAL

3 Gonzaga over 14 Kennesaw St. FINAL

7 Miami FL over 10 Missouri FINAL

2 Purdue over 15 Queens FINAL

1 Michigan over 16 Howard FINAL

9 Saint Louis over 8 Georgia FINAL

5 Texas Tech over 12 Akron FINAL

4 Alabama over 13 Hofstra FINAL

6 Tennessee over 11 Miami OH FINAL

3 Virginia over 14 Wright St. FINAL

7 Kentucky over 10 Santa Clara FINAL

2 Iowa St. over 15 Tennessee St. FINAL

Round of 32 PREDICTED

1 Duke over 9 TCU 89.4%

5 St. John's over 4 Kansas 63.2%

3 Michigan St. over 6 Louisville 60.5%

2 Connecticut over 7 UCLA 75.2%

1 Florida over 9 Iowa 83.2%

5 Vanderbilt over 4 Nebraska 60.9%

3 Illinois over 11 VCU 86.7%

2 Houston over 10 Texas A&M 88.2%

1 Arizona over 9 Utah St. 86.7%

4 Arkansas over 12 High Point 88.1%

3 Gonzaga over 11 Texas 76.0%

2 Purdue over 7 Miami FL 82.0%

1 Michigan over 9 Saint Louis 89.6%

5 Texas Tech over 4 Alabama 56.1%

3 Virginia over 6 Tennessee 62.9%

2 Iowa St. over 7 Kentucky 79.3%

Sweet 16 PREDICTED

1 Duke over 5 St. John's 83.1%

2 Connecticut over 3 Michigan St. 62.1%

1 Florida over 5 Vanderbilt 69.1%

2 Houston over 3 Illinois 63.2%

1 Arizona over 4 Arkansas 74.0%

2 Purdue over 3 Gonzaga 76.1%

1 Michigan over 5 Texas Tech 81.1%

2 Iowa St. over 3 Virginia 58.8%

Elite Eight PREDICTED

1 Duke over 2 Connecticut 76.5%

2 Houston over 1 Florida 65.3%

1 Arizona over 2 Purdue 59.8%

1 Michigan over 2 Iowa St. 73.2%

Final Four PREDICTED

1 Duke over 2 Houston 59.8%

1 Michigan over 1 Arizona 58.2%

Championship PREDICTED

1 Duke over 1 Michigan 57.0%

What Matters Most

Top Features by Importance

BADJ EM

18.57%

OFF_DEF_RATIO

9.0%

WAB

5.38%

FOUR_FACTORS_D

4.65%

AST%

3.3%

FT%

3.26%

TALENT

2.59%

FTR

2.53%

ELO

2.26%

FOUR_FACTORS_O

2.13%

BADJ D

2.11%

WIN%

2.04%

3PT%D

1.87%

AVG HGT

1.85%

EFF HGT

1.72%