Braves True-Talent Dashboard

Are we winning?

Rolling 15-game winning percentage. Dashed line is .500.

Runs scored vs allowed

Rolling 15-game averages. Blue above red is how you win.

True talent, both sides

Rolling 15-game expected wOBA: offense (higher is better) vs pitching allowed (lower is better).

Watch list, auto-flagged from the last 30 days

Dubón, Mauricio: still producing (.341 expected) but exit velocity is down 1.9 mph over the last 30 days; early fatigue or injury flag.
Olson, Matt: still producing (.336 expected) but exit velocity is down 2.1 mph over the last 30 days; early fatigue or injury flag.
Harris II, Michael: expected production .368 season to .325 last 30 days, exit velocity down 3.3 mph.
Yastrzemski, Mike: still producing (.291 expected) but exit velocity is down 1.9 mph over the last 30 days; early fatigue or injury flag.
Albies, Ozzie: hitting .335 but contact quality says .268; expect results to come down.
White, Eli: hitting .363 but contact quality says .267; expect results to come down.
Baldwin, Drake: expected production .374 season to .259 last 30 days, exit velocity down 4.2 mph.
Riley, Austin: expected production .290 season to .251 last 30 days, exit velocity down 1.6 mph.
Mateo, Jorge: expected production .316 season to .227 last 30 days.
Smith, Dominic: expected production .315 season to .226 last 30 days, exit velocity down 2.4 mph.
Kim, Ha-Seong: results (.112) are below the quality of contact (.198); better days coming.
López, Reynaldo: results better than the contact allowed (.237 vs .291); regression risk.
Iglesias, Raisel: hitters' expected damage up 0.038 points of xwOBA in the last 30 days.
Pérez, Martín: fastball down 1.1 mph over the last 30 days; watch for fatigue or injury.
Elder, Bryce: fastball down 0.8 mph over the last 30 days; watch for fatigue or injury.
Carrasco, Carlos: hitters' expected damage up 0.056 points of xwOBA in the last 30 days.

Hitters · sorted by last-30-day expected production

Player	Season			Last 30 days											Read
Player	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	Δx*	Luck*	EV	Hard%	Brl%	Whiff%	Chase%	HR	Read
Dubón, Mauricio	354	.346	.321	108	.367	.341	+20	+25	84.2	36.0	2.2	12.9	38.9	3	▼ soft contact
Olson, Matt	398	.377	.363	108	.378	.336	-27	+42	90.8	47.9	14.1	23.0	25.1	7	▼ soft contact
Harris II, Michael	337	.373	.368	100	.368	.325	-43	+43	87.8	42.9	8.6	26.8	47.8	3	▼ fading ▼ soft contact
Yastrzemski, Mike	254	.309	.297	70	.286	.291	-6	-5	87.7	51.1	6.7	20.5	25.5	2	▼ soft contact
Acuña Jr., Ronald	236	.357	.382	3	.233	.279	-103	-46	87.7	0.0	0.0	75.0	22.2	0	• small sample
Albies, Ozzie	392	.343	.298	109	.335	.268	-31	+67	87.0	25.6	3.3	19.4	39.7	4	⚠ over water
White, Eli	119	.324	.280	42	.363	.267	-13	+96	87.5	29.6	3.7	29.2	31.8	2	⚠ over water
Baldwin, Drake	301	.349	.374	85	.198	.259	-115	-61	87.1	40.0	6.0	31.2	36.7	2	▼ fading ↓ unlucky ▼ soft contact
Riley, Austin	368	.285	.290	100	.269	.251	-39	+19	88.8	36.2	10.3	35.0	33.5	1	▼ fading ▼ soft contact
Mateo, Jorge	132	.300	.316	41	.152	.227	-89	-75	88.0	45.8	4.2	34.9	46.3	0	▼ fading ↓ unlucky
Smith, Dominic	222	.319	.315	69	.220	.226	-88	-6	84.9	33.9	1.8	22.1	26.1	0	▼ fading ▼ soft contact
Kim, Ha-Seong	82	.135	.212	25	.112	.198	-14	-86	85.5	15.4	7.7	26.2	19.7	0	↓ unlucky

Pitchers · sorted by last-30-day expected damage allowed (best first)

Pitcher	Season (against)			Last 30 days (against)										Read
Pitcher	BF	wOBA	xwOBA	BF	wOBA	xwOBA	Δx*	Luck*	FB velo	Δvelo	Whiff%	Brl%	HR	Read
Lee, Dylan	151	.194	.216	40	.212	.221	+5	-10	93.2	-0.1	38.6	4.0	0	• steady
Karinchak, James	33	.238	.244	33	.238	.244	+0	-7	95.1	+0.0	24.5	9.1	1	• steady
Kinley, Tyler	134	.314	.270	15	.371	.257	-14	+115	94.2	-0.4	33.3	0.0	1	• small sample
Fuentes, Didier	148	.282	.277	41	.323	.289	+12	+34	96.9	-0.0	28.4	3.7	0	• steady
Sale, Chris	393	.289	.290	98	.333	.289	-0	+44	96.6	+0.7	27.6	3.1	2	• steady
Dodd, Dylan	94	.224	.262	47	.257	.291	+29	-34	93.8	-0.1	29.0	6.7	2	• steady
López, Reynaldo	239	.312	.328	73	.237	.291	-37	-54	94.6	+0.4	25.9	6.1	1	▲ sharp ⚠ over water
Iglesias, Raisel	124	.284	.257	45	.351	.295	+38	+56	94.8	+0.2	20.2	6.5	2	▼ fading ↓ unlucky ▼ whiffs gone
Holmes, Grant	376	.318	.329	107	.306	.318	-11	-12	93.5	-0.4	23.5	5.4	3	• steady
Ritchie, JR	193	.334	.338	78	.328	.327	-11	+1	94.7	+0.4	25.9	10.6	3	• steady
Suarez, Robert	121	.225	.286	13	.192	.343	+57	-151	98.8	+0.2	11.1	0.0	0	• small sample
Waldrep, Hurston	56	.418	.360	56	.418	.360	+0	+58	94.2	+0.0	23.3	8.6	3	↓ unlucky
Pérez, Martín	333	.308	.332	108	.349	.362	+30	-13	88.1	-1.1	21.4	4.9	4	⚠ velo down
Elder, Bryce	415	.307	.297	73	.475	.394	+97	+82	91.0	-0.8	19.1	8.9	5	▼ fading ↓ unlucky ⚠ velo down
Strider, Spencer	165	.352	.291	17	.615	.418	+128	+196	93.7	-1.5	27.3	16.7	3	• small sample
Carrasco, Carlos	73	.377	.437	44	.467	.493	+56	-26	91.0	-0.1	19.3	8.1	2	▼ fading
Bummer, Aaron	77	.441	.389	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	• small sample
Suarez, José	79	.375	.314	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	• small sample

Injured list

AJ Smith-Shawver P 60-DayHa-Seong Kim SS 10-DayJoe Jiménez P 60-DayJoey Wentz P 60-DayMartín Pérez P 15-DayRobert Suarez P 15-DayRonald Acuña Jr. RF 10-DaySean Murphy C 60-DaySpencer Schwellenbach P 60-DaySpencer Strider P 60-Day

NL East

Team	W-L	GB	L10
Braves	53-38	-	4-6
Phillies	51-42	3.0	5-5
Marlins	51-42	3.0	7-3
Nationals	48-46	6.5	6-4
Mets	39-54	15.0	4-6