Braves True-Talent Dashboard

built 2026-10-07 · data through 2026-09-27 · regular season only
Record
94-68
1st NL East, +6.0 lead
Last 10
5-5
run diff +116 season
Offense xwOBA, last 30d
.307
-0.010 vs season .317
Pitching xwOBA against, 30d
.314
+0.001 vs season .313
Offense luck, last 30d
+8 pts
actual minus expected wOBA
On the IL
5
see list below

Are we winning?

Rolling 15-game winning percentage. Dashed line is .500.

0.2030.4230.6440.864AprMayJunJulAugSepWin pct

Runs scored vs allowed

Rolling 15-game averages. Blue above red is how you win.

1.23.25.27.2AprMayJunJulAugSepScoredAllowed

True talent, both sides

Rolling 15-game expected wOBA: offense (higher is better) vs pitching allowed (lower is better).

0.2580.2960.3340.372AprMayJunJulAugSepOffensePitching

Watch list, auto-flagged from the last 30 days

Hitters · sorted by last-30-day expected production

PlayerSeasonLast 30 daysRead
PAwOBAxwOBAPAwOBAxwOBAΔx*Luck*EVHard%Brl%Whiff%Chase%HR
Acuña Jr., Ronald 470.358.368 113.439.397 +29 +43 88.539.315.5 25.731.17 • steady
Baldwin, Drake 615.362.371 124.363.357 -15 +6 90.044.811.5 27.038.73 • steady
Harris II, Michael 626.359.343 109.382.344 +1 +38 89.744.88.0 21.246.65 • steady
Smith, Dominic 300.315.303 14.243.343 +40 -100 88.833.311.1 23.817.21 • small sample
Murphy, Sean 121.281.273 72.325.328 +55 -3 91.248.811.6 30.330.12 ▲ surging
Dubón, Mauricio 619.331.308 107.355.311 +3 +44 85.527.04.5 15.840.42 • steady
Riley, Austin 630.293.299 99.284.300 +0 -15 90.938.315.0 26.530.34 • steady
Yastrzemski, Mike 408.312.309 73.295.299 -10 -4 87.640.06.0 21.628.83 ▼ soft contact
Olson, Matt 698.357.354 116.266.291 -62 -25 91.659.37.0 26.930.74 ▼ fading
Kim, Ha-Seong 147.185.223 58.246.238 +15 +8 82.424.30.0 17.629.40 ▼ soft contact
Albies, Ozzie 684.305.275 113.209.204 -71 +5 87.726.22.5 23.238.12 ▼ fading
Jarvis, Jim 124.284.275 0-- - - --- --0 • small sample
Mateo, Jorge 137.299.322 0-- - - --- --0 • small sample
White, Eli 144.340.269 0-- - - --- --0 • small sample

Pitchers · sorted by last-30-day expected damage allowed (best first)

PitcherSeason (against)Last 30 days (against)Read
BFwOBAxwOBABFwOBAxwOBAΔx*Luck*FB veloΔveloWhiff%Brl%HR
Mahle, Tyler 210.269.293 117.266.248 -45 +18 93.2-0.0 23.95.74 ▲ sharp
Suter, Brent 111.283.282 62.248.254 -28 -7 89.4+0.2 31.19.51 • steady
Sale, Chris 650.265.268 73.276.255 -12 +20 96.2+0.2 31.514.02 • steady
Hernández, Elieser 53.325.266 25.316.271 +4 +45 93.0+0.7 29.813.32 ↓ unlucky
Iglesias, Raisel 240.284.290 38.166.279 -11 -113 94.2-0.1 30.94.01 ⚠ over water
Kerr, Ray 66.221.295 56.212.280 -14 -68 94.7-0.1 24.27.12 ⚠ over water
Suarez, Robert 130.241.286 9.456.291 +5 +164 98.0-0.6 7.10.00 • small sample
Mederos, Victor 148.287.291 44.275.296 +5 -21 97.3+0.3 25.30.00 • steady
Dodd, Dylan 194.261.276 31.337.300 +24 +37 94.4+0.5 36.621.13 • steady
Fuentes, Didier 298.283.279 55.287.308 +29 -21 97.7+0.4 31.28.62 • steady
Lee, Dylan 262.255.255 34.429.321 +66 +107 93.7+0.4 25.43.60 ▼ fading ↓ unlucky ▼ whiffs gone
Smith-Shawver, AJ 145.374.335 81.392.331 -4 +61 96.2+0.1 25.111.16 ↓ unlucky
Pérez, Martín 596.309.327 121.326.335 +8 -9 88.8-0.4 19.32.22 • steady
Ritchie, JR 327.349.350 70.423.354 +4 +69 94.1-0.2 19.510.64 ↓ unlucky
Holmes, Grant 642.319.343 113.306.369 +26 -63 94.4+0.5 26.88.93 ⚠ over water
López, Reynaldo 346.342.337 40.450.377 +40 +73 93.2-0.9 27.03.61 ▼ fading ↓ unlucky ⚠ velo down
Elder, Bryce 633.323.315 27.463.408 +93 +56 90.8-0.9 11.819.02 ▼ fading ↓ unlucky ⚠ velo down ▼ whiffs gone
Murphy, Owen 56.437.403 27.541.458 +54 +83 91.9-1.0 22.013.03 ▼ fading ↓ unlucky ⚠ velo down
Bummer, Aaron 77.441.389 0-- - - -- --0 • small sample
Carrasco, Carlos 73.377.437 0-- - - -- --0 • small sample
Kinley, Tyler 180.335.297 0-- - - -- --0 • small sample
Strider, Spencer 165.352.290 0-- - - -- --0 • small sample
Suarez, José 79.375.314 0-- - - -- --0 • small sample
Waldrep, Hurston 56.418.359 0-- - - -- --0 • small sample
Young, Danny 65.462.407 0-- - - -- --0 • small sample

Injured list

Hurston Waldrep P 60-DayJoe Jiménez P 60-DayJoey Wentz P 60-DaySpencer Schwellenbach P 60-DaySpencer Strider P 60-Day

NL East

TeamW-LGBL10
Braves94-68-5-5
Phillies88-746.04-6
Marlins80-8214.05-5
Nationals77-8517.06-4
Mets74-8820.05-5